Homefund Financial Model

5-Year Projections (2026-2030) · Revenue Model

Navigation Menu

Homefund Logo

Revenue Model Structure

Homefund generates revenue from three sources when properties are sold:

Entry Revenue

Revenue from paid entries sold (excludes free entries)

3% Closing Fee

Charged on the final sale price of the property

50% Premium Split

Half of the amount sold above reserve price (base: 20% above reserve)

Free Entries as CAC: Free entries (~1/3 of total) are treated as customer acquisition cost in marketing expenses and convert to equity in properties held as assets on Homefund's balance sheet.
Example (Base Case): $400K property, $380K reserve, $456K sale price → $488,880 entry revenue + $13,680 closing fee + $38,000 premium split = $540,560 total revenue per property

Scenario Analysis

Compare financial projections across different growth and market assumptions

Worst Case

5-Year Total Revenue

$4.09M

Closing Fees$137K
Premium Split$208K
Equity Value$1.75M

Annual Revenue

Year 1$99K
Year 2$248K
Year 3$625K
Year 4$1.20M
Year 5$1.92M

CAGR

110.1%

Base CaseActive

5-Year Total Revenue

$124.12M

Closing Fees$3.87M
Premium Split$10.76M
Equity Value$37.75M

Annual Revenue

Year 1$265K
Year 2$1.42M
Year 3$7.58M
Year 4$28.21M
Year 5$86.64M

CAGR

325.3%

Best Case

5-Year Total Revenue

$2.70B

Closing Fees$78.25M
Premium Split$300.95M
Equity Value$633.59M

Annual Revenue

Year 1$769K
Year 2$11.20M
Year 3$162.94M
Year 4$717.20M
Year 5$1.81B

CAGR

596.0%

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) Metrics
Comprehensive view of marketing spend and user acquisition efficiency

Worst Case

Total Marketing Spend (Year 1)

$97K

→ Free Entries (Equity)$42K
→ Traditional Marketing$15K
→ Referral Program$4K
→ Influencer Marketing$36K

CAC per User

$1.32

LTV:CAC Ratio

3.0x

Payback Period

11.9 months

Base Case

Total Marketing Spend (Year 1)

$160K

→ Free Entries (Equity)$81K
→ Traditional Marketing$40K
→ Referral Program$4K
→ Influencer Marketing$36K

CAC per User

$2.45

LTV:CAC Ratio

5.0x

Payback Period

7.3 months

Best Case

Total Marketing Spend (Year 1)

$336K

→ Free Entries (Equity)$181K
→ Traditional Marketing$115K
→ Referral Program$3K
→ Influencer Marketing$36K

CAC per User

$5.85

LTV:CAC Ratio

6.9x

Payback Period

5.2 months

CAC Components: Total CAC includes (1) equity value of free entries given away, (2) traditional marketing spend (social media, SEO, paid ads = 10% of revenue), (3) referral program costs (2 entries per referral at $1 marginal cost each = $2 per referral), and (4) influencer marketing (~$3k/month for partnerships). LTV:CAC ratio >3x indicates healthy unit economics.
Revenue Projections - Base Case
Revenue breakdown: closing fees, premium split, and equity value
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5$0$9.50M$19.00M$28.50M$38.00M
  • Closing Fees (3%)
  • Premium Split (50%)
  • Equity Value
Scenario Assumptions Comparison
Key parameter differences across scenarios
ParameterWorst CaseBase CaseBest Case
Monthly User Growth8.0%15.0%25.0%
Paid Entry Ratio60.0%66.7%70.0%
Free Entry Ratio40.0%33.3%30.0%
Entry Price$8.00$10.00$12.00
Starting Conversion Rate12.0%15.0%18.0%
Entries Per Buyer1.03.010.0
Year 1 Properties234
Premium Above Reserve10.0%20.0%30.0%
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis
Impact of ±20% change in each parameter on 5-year total revenue (Base: $124M)
$-62M$-42M$-22M$0User GrowthConversionRateEntry PriceEntries PerBuyerFree EntryRatioPaid EntryRatio

Key Insights

  • • User Growth has the highest impact on revenue - focus on acquisition and retention
  • • Campaign Growth is critical - ensure property pipeline matches user base expansion
  • • Conversion Rate optimization can significantly boost revenue without increasing costs
  • • Referral Rate drives viral growth - invest in referral incentives and user experience
Revenue Range by Year
Min-max revenue projections
Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5$0$500.00M$1.00B$1.50B$2.00B
  • Worst
  • Base
  • Best
Per-Property Revenue Breakdown
Base case example ($400K property)
Property Value$400,000
Reserve Price (95%)$380,000
Sale Price (+20%)$456,000
Closing Fee (3%)$13,680
Premium Split (50%)$38,000
Equity (33% free)$133,200
Total Revenue per Property$184,880

Revenue Mix:

• Closing fees: 7.4% of total
• Premium split: 20.6% of total
• Equity value: 72.0% of total
Gross Margin Trend Analysis
How economies of scale improve unit economics over 5 years
Y1Y2Y3Y4Y50.0%25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0%
  • Worst Case
  • Base Case
  • Best Case
worst Case
Year 1 Margin:91.7%
Year 5 Margin:91.7%
Improvement:+0.0pp
base Case
Year 1 Margin:91.9%
Year 5 Margin:91.9%
Improvement:+-0.0pp
best Case
Year 1 Margin:92.2%
Year 5 Margin:92.2%
Improvement:+-0.0pp

Key Insights:

  • • Fixed blockchain costs per entry become smaller % of revenue as property values and entry prices optimize
  • • Payment processing fees remain constant as % of revenue, but overall margin improves with scale
  • • Higher gross margins in later years provide more cushion for OpEx and drive profitability

About This Model

This financial model reflects Homefund's actual revenue structure: 3% closing fees, 50% premium split on sales above reserve, and equity value from free entries. Projections based on GTM strategy, legal risk assessment, and market assumptions.

Homefund Logo